ECA

ECA has had a decent short term run up of 7%. I like the stock, but don't think the current rally is sustainable, as it is based on two primary market factors, and 3 primary technical factors.

1. the US Fed decision not to raise interest rates
2. The capture of 15 British sailors and marines by Iran.

The Fed decision not to raise rates is good for oil, but part of the rally appears to have been based on speculation of future rate cuts. This is probably not enough to make for a sustainable oil rally.

The capture of the Brits appears to have been a legitimate move by Iran (the Brits were in Iranian waters), but after the initial posturing I'm sure they'll be released without incident. Especially in light of already existing international pressure to impose sanctions on Iran because of their nuclear program. Could capturing these soldiers put Iran in a better position when negotiating with the UN? Or will it simply add fuel to the fire?

1. The 20 and 50 day moving averages indicate that ECA may be in a bearish trend. (20 day moving average is below the 50 day moving average).
2. ECA is trading at its upper Bollinger band. This means that the stock price is high relative to the action over the last 20 days.
3. Volume appears to be lower than normal (later in the day will give a better sense, but with 30% of the trading day gone, we've only seen 27% of volumes, and that includes market open which is typically volume peak).

I will decide later today but will likely hold off on selling until Monday, in the hope that ECA breaks through the $58 barrier at least temporarily.