Yesterday's market meltdown was a nice opportunity to buy some calls on NA for a quick flip. It wasn't much money (Canada doesn't have the most liquid of option markets) but hey, I'll take it.
I now turn my attention back to Blackberry. This stock is like an itchy scab that you just can't stop picking at. Not really a good thing. But I'm really tempted to buy some calls. Here's my reasoning why;
1. The stock has gotten the shit kicked out of it lately. Not without good reason, mind you - since the hardware side continues to disappoint, and software revenue is a bit skewed by the Good acquisition... But it's so cheap that it looks attractive.
2. The PRIV effect. It's an awesome phone. Absolutely beautiful. And it's actually been selling. I'm not talking Iphone or Samsung volumes, here, but still - it's selling. I don't access to any real stats - so I've resorted to walking into wireless retail establishments, who all tell me that it's been selling well, and also to looking at Amazon reviews as a proxy for sell through rates (e.g. lots of reviews for the Priv and associated accessories means good sell through). Based on that unscientific-but-hey-I-have-access-to-no-other-metrics approach, I'm thinking that the hardware estimate could be a surprise to the upside.
3. What have they got to lose? What I mean by that is, they've publicly stated that the Priv is make or break. If they don't make their numbers, they get out of the hardware business and focus on services - value gets unlocked and the stock goes up. If they make their numbers - everyone is appropriately surprised - stock goes up.
Those are my quick thoughts. Of course, there are lots of other fundamentals to consider - but then, when was the last time a stock traded on fundamentals...
What do you think?
No comments:
Post a Comment