Wednesday, January 20, 2016

A drop in the well - an alternate theory for the current market decline

There's an interesting take on the reason for the market turmoil in 247wallst.com.  The basic premise is that as oil prices rise, exporters amass sovereign wealth portfolios to invest the surplus, and presumably as oil prices drop, those countries begin to liquidate their portfolios, resulting in a preponderance (love that word) of liquidity in the markets.  The lack of demand and excess of supply drives the market lower. It's an interesting theory, and makes a good bit of sense.  Certainly it sounds more reasonable than the idea that the market is so severely spooked by the glut of oil that it keeps pushing the market past correction and toward recession.
On the other hand, the movements in market prices seem strongly correlated with the price of oil, whereas if the impact was caused by these massive portfolios, I'd expect to see more volume, and less correlation.  Nevertheless, still food for thought...

Tuesday, January 19, 2016

Quick flip on NA.TO calls + Musings on the future of Blackberry

Yesterday's market meltdown was a nice opportunity to buy some calls on NA for a quick flip.  It wasn't much money (Canada doesn't have the most liquid of option markets) but hey, I'll take it.
I now turn my attention back to Blackberry.  This stock is like an itchy scab that you just can't stop picking at.  Not really a good thing.  But I'm really tempted to buy some calls.  Here's my reasoning why;
1. The stock has gotten the shit kicked out of it lately. Not without good reason, mind you - since the hardware side continues to disappoint, and software revenue is a bit skewed by the Good acquisition... But it's so cheap that it looks attractive.
2. The PRIV effect.  It's an awesome phone.  Absolutely beautiful.  And it's actually been selling.  I'm not talking Iphone or Samsung volumes, here, but still - it's selling.  I don't access to any real stats - so I've resorted to walking into wireless retail establishments, who all tell me that it's been selling well, and also to looking at Amazon reviews as a proxy for sell through rates (e.g. lots of reviews for the Priv and associated accessories means good sell through).  Based on that unscientific-but-hey-I-have-access-to-no-other-metrics approach, I'm thinking that the hardware estimate could be a surprise to the upside.
3. What have they got to lose?  What I mean by that is, they've publicly stated that the Priv is make or break.  If they don't make their numbers, they get out of the hardware business and focus on services - value gets unlocked and the stock goes up.  If they make their numbers - everyone is appropriately surprised - stock goes up.
Those are my quick thoughts. Of course, there are lots of other fundamentals to consider - but then, when was the last time a stock traded on fundamentals...
What do you think?