Wednesday, January 20, 2016

A drop in the well - an alternate theory for the current market decline

There's an interesting take on the reason for the market turmoil in 247wallst.com.  The basic premise is that as oil prices rise, exporters amass sovereign wealth portfolios to invest the surplus, and presumably as oil prices drop, those countries begin to liquidate their portfolios, resulting in a preponderance (love that word) of liquidity in the markets.  The lack of demand and excess of supply drives the market lower. It's an interesting theory, and makes a good bit of sense.  Certainly it sounds more reasonable than the idea that the market is so severely spooked by the glut of oil that it keeps pushing the market past correction and toward recession.
On the other hand, the movements in market prices seem strongly correlated with the price of oil, whereas if the impact was caused by these massive portfolios, I'd expect to see more volume, and less correlation.  Nevertheless, still food for thought...

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